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Probability

infoWhy this? Venn and tree diagrams model relationships and sequences of events, making combined probabilities easier to organise and justify. Distinguishing mutually exclusive from independent events develops precise reasoning about how probabilities are added or multiplied.

scheduleWhy now? Year 7 introduced single-event probabilities, and Year 8 developed experimental probability, two-way tables, and sample spaces. This unit now connects those foundations through formal notation and multi-stage representations before more complex probability modelling.

neurologyYou need to know

  • The probability of an event A is written as `P(A)`.
  • Probabilities are always between 0 and 1, where 0 means impossible and 1 means certain.
  • The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes in a sample space is 1.
  • Mutually exclusive events are events that cannot happen at the same time; they have no outcomes in common.
  • For mutually exclusive events A and B, `P(A \text{ or } B) = P(A) + P(B)`.
  • Independent events are events where the outcome of one does not affect the outcome of the other.
  • For independent events A and B, `P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B)`.
  • A Venn diagram is a visual representation of sets and their relationships, often used to show probabilities of combined events.
  • A tree diagram is a branching diagram that shows all possible outcomes of a sequence of events and their probabilities.
  • The probability of a sequence of independent events is found by multiplying the probabilities along the branches of the tree diagram.

rocket_launchYou must be able to

  • Use correct probability notation, such as `P(A)`, `P(A \cup B)`, and `P(A \cap B)`, in calculations and explanations. Exemplification
  • Identify whether two or more events are mutually exclusive or not, and justify the reasoning.
  • Copy a given Venn diagram accurately and complete it by placing the correct probabilities or frequencies in each region. Exemplification
  • Calculate the probability of combined independent events using multiplication, for example, `P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B)`. Exemplification
  • Copy a given tree diagram accurately and complete it by filling in missing probabilities and outcomes.
  • Use a completed tree diagram to find the probability of specific outcomes or combined events. Exemplification


Revision Quiz

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